
The BBC has this little tidbit which I'm willing to bet will get zero play on the American evening news this week, being that it's so much more important to talk about Anna Nicole Smith's autopsy:
The British government was advised against publicly criticising a report estimating that 655,000 Iraqis had died due to the war, the BBC has learnt.
Iraqi Health Ministry figures put the toll at less than 10% of the total in the survey, published in the Lancet.
But the Ministry of Defence's chief scientific adviser said the survey's methods were "close to best practice" and the study design was "robust".
Another expert agreed the method was "tried and tested".
[...]
The Lancet medical journal published its peer-reviewed survey last October.
It was conducted by the John Hopkins School of Public Health and compared mortality rates before and after the invasion by surveying 47 randomly chosen areas across 16 provinces in Iraq.
The researchers spoke to nearly 1,850 families, comprising more than 12,800 people.
In nearly 92% of cases family members produced death certificates to support their answers. The survey estimated that 601,000 deaths were the result of violence, mostly gunfire.
[...]
If the Lancet survey is right, then 2.5% of the Iraqi population - an average of more than 500 people a day - have been killed since the start of the war.
The BBC World Service made a Freedom of Information Request on 28 November 2006. The information was released on 14 March 2007.
2.5%.
Dead.
In four years.
That's one out of every forty Iraqis who were alive at the beginning of this monstrosity.
Putting It In Perspective #1: According to Human Rights Watch, Saddam Hussein, as bad as he was, managed to kill at most 290,000 people during his quarter-century in power -- less than half of Bush's four-year death total. Saddam would have had to have ruled another twenty-four years to even come close to matching what George W. Bush has 'achieved' in four years. Can you imagine why the Iraqis might not feel so 'grateful' about being invaded? I sure can. [UPDATE: And there's reason to question whether the 290,000 figure cited by Human Rights Watch was inflated, as noted here and here.]
Putting It In Perspective #2: Imagine that in March 2003, the Chinese, with the help of the rest of the world and a few space aliens, had decided that Bush had to go and so started "Operation American Freedom", invading and bombing the crap out of our land and infrastructure, installing a hideously corrupt puppet government, and setting off sectarian wars and an insurgency that would end up killing nearly eight million Americans in the process over four years. Think that even the biggest Bush-haters might long for the pre-invasion days? So it is that even people who disliked Saddam yearn for a return to days when they could live normal, even peaceful lives in cities that weren't bombed-out ruins.
One out of every forty.
Think about it.
And that doesn't count the living who are maimed and wounded, spiritually and physically.
One out of every forty.
Every Iraqi knows at least one person -- and more likely five or six or seven -- who died in the last four years as a result of this war.
One out of every forty.
And two million people -- one out of every thirteen Iraqis -- have left Iraq for Jordan, Syria, Turkey, whereever they can go to get away from the hell that used to be their country.
Think about it.
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Hello? Zed?
you know i could have been first. but this post demanded reading.
Two posts in 4 minutes? Oops?
Another example of suppressing bad news.
This blood is on our hands.
the ugly truth is that the u.s. media have gone out of their way to shun the hopkins study/lancet report, even though there is no real debate that its estimates are compiled using the best practices available.
Wow. This is so depressing. And, for some reason, it isn’t surprising… but still, very depressing.
To the Hague!
PS, PW: Great acronym for the hypothetical Chinese takedown of Bush!
O peration
A merican
F reedom
dmg @
2
You’re right. A very sobering report.
I did actually hear about this report over the air, so maybe it will penetrate the fog of infotainment that passes for news in most media.
Bob in HI
dmg @ 5
I remember (when the report was issued) Bush’s tortured pronunciation when he questioned the report’s “methodology.” Since that was the takedown talking point, I knew the methodology must be accurate.
Oh, that is so sickening to read. 500 hundred people per day die because of Bush - I’ll bet he can’t worry his beautiful mind about a statistic like this one.
Both Perspective 1 and 2 are sobering.
Bob Schacht @
8
I remember a few months ago when the study’s authors were interviewed. If anything, the 655,000 figure is very likely on the low side.
Bob Schacht @ 8
ah well. one of these days i’ll get to thank the academy.
meanwhile, i don’t get the media’s evasion on this. really, talk to anyone in a position to actually run a story and they’ll look at you like your tinfoil hat is smoking.
Yup, and as the study’s authors pointed out recently, the official Iraqi estimates were quietly revised sharply UPWARD after the Johns Hopkins study came out. So even though the Iraqi officials publicly won’t admit the JH study is accurate, they’re copping to a lot more deaths than before.
The Lancet report counts “excess deaths” resultig from the war, including deaths from malnutrition or bad water attributable to the war, as well as deaths deliberately caused by any of the belligerents.
This is just a clarification, not a dissent. The report is apparently good, meaning that the Iraqis are not better off because of the war.
TeddySanFran @
7
Heh! Didn’t even realize that! Thanks.
From AP, filed at 1:38 PM ET:
My bold. What’s Mr. Dunce talking about? Yesterday, the Senate passed a bill authorizing funding for the troops in Iraq. Period.
what’s often not mentioned is that, iirc, johns hopkins did an earlier study on the dead in maybe the first year of the war that got blasted on its methodology. so they went BACK and did this second study, a couple years later, employing all the extra practices that the first study had been criticized for not using.
it doesn’t matter. when you don’t want to know something, you don’t want to know.
TeddySanFran @ 9
I remember (when the report was issued) Bush’s tortured pronunciation when he questioned the report’s “methodology.” Since that was the takedown talking point, I knew the methodology must be accurate.
The report’s methodology?
That’s hilarious. Nonsensical, but hilarious just the same.
Well, this report has been out a while, if the Right hasn’t come up with a “they are counting paper cuts” meme yet, they never will.
Biodun @ 16
Dunceboy’s VETO will delay the dough.
Dunceboy: I don’t WANT to hit you, but you MAKE ME do it.
From AP:
What evil? And we’ve already lost moral purpose in the world. Aren’t we in danger now? And the enemy will wait for us to leave to follow us here? Which enemy? Al-Qaeda? The Sunnis? The Shiites?
Which assuredly includes the rest of the country.
Biodun @ 16
He’s talking about the statements he’s been making that he’s going to veto it. Somehow, in his mind, that equates with the Congress won’t fund it. That equates with lots of other statements he’s made, most notably, “Mission Accomplished”.
sadness, fierce rage, powerless,disgust, there are not words to express all I feel..I thank all for letting me and you know we are not sitting alone at our keyboards in hyperspace jousting at windmills..keep on putting those stones in the bucket this ship is going down.
Great I am so proud of my country that under President bush we are now beating Saddam’s record for killing Iraq’s. I wonder whats next for bush? Is he going to make a run at beating the Nazi’s record with the Concentration Camps?
From Froomie:
Shorter Pissy Boy:
I WILL NOT HESITATE TO USE THE LIVES OF MORE AMERICAN SOLDIERS TO GET MY WAY.
.
Kindly please refrain from calculating the human cost of this war. It’s hard enough to explain/defend when it’s unjustifiable. How can we face the world if we admit that it’s also unconscionable, barbaric, criminal, and damnable?
Thank goodness the British like to control their science, too.
I’m guessing a male of middle eastern descent between 8 and 70 years old doesn’t have much of a chance in Iraq.
Biodun @ 16
Dunceboy is still trying to legislate from the Oval Office, or Bully Pulpit, as he apparently still thinks it is. I can’t wait to see the signing statement when he realizes he’s been backed into a corner.
I read something about this recently and they included among the disasters for the Iraqis the unborn children as part of the continuing observation that weighs the significance of the Bush Doctrine . Sort this with poignant personal Gilda Radner observation at the end of her life . Worse
From the same AP report:
707!
Zarqawi will come back from the grave to follow us? McCain’s getting too old…
I am dreaming of The Hague.
things come undone @ 25
Maybe. From the department of In Case You Were Doubting That The Occupation of Iraq is Part of a Crusade comes this from John Warner: “It would be the bugle of retreat,” “It would be echoed and repeated from every minaret through Iraq: the coalition forces have decided to take the first step backward.”
Biodun @ 16
No, they just voted down the amendment that would have stripped out the timeline yesterday. Unless I’ve missed something, they still have a bunch more amendments to vote on (including Webb’s “no Iran without authorization”) before voting on the bill itself, and then it goes to conference with the House bill.
What do these guys think is going to happen? The easter bunny is going to come and spread little plastic eggs full of democracy around Bagdad? If we just wait a little longer…
OT: If you have not checked out the Roots Project beta, or this post from yesterday, please do.
Also, I understand there are some uncashed checks that have been sent to FDL via snail mail. Please be patient. This is one of those delays caused by cancer. Once we have enough real capital to develop a staff, we won’t have these hiccups, hopefully.
Thanks!
The comparison with the U.S.A. reminded me of the article by Juan Cole, If America were Iraq, what would it be like?. Exept that everything in Iraq has become vastly worse since the article was written in 2004.
How dare you even compare President Bush to a bunch of Red Chinese-allied Soylent Green-consuming tentacled eyeballs from Zaltramzagor!
That’s unpatriotic!
the results of that study have been out for months… no one cared when they first came out… at least in our MSM… and no one seems to care now. Disgusting.
I do think, however, that you should have quoted the study just a bit more carefully. The study measured the increase in total mortality rates since the invasion. In other words, the 655,000 person increase in total mortality included deaths caused directly by US forces, deaths from sectarian violence, death from increased incidence of disease caused by the reduced efficiency of sanitation and public health, etc. “Killed because we started the war,” might be more accurate “than killed in the war.” Still disgusting, but precision counts.
I was being snarky. Of course the Senate passed the bill authorizing funding. And of course Bush’s promised veto will delay the funding. But as greenwarrior says @ 23, the dunce is equating his veto with the Senate not passing the bill.
Heckuva job, Bushie!
Gnome de Plume @
32
Me, too.
Pachacutec @
36
And thank you, Pach!
Portent of horror to come.. the green zone is slowly becoming fair game..Jesusmaryandjoseph is there no sanity, left no wise council?
Sorry OT, I am just aghast at the lack of wisdom and if I don’t write my innards tend to explode.
Russia reporting a US military build-up near the Iranian border.
UAE says “No Iran strikes to be launched from out territory”.
Indianews link.
-GSD
The Bush response (most likely silence) would be that these numbers are ridiculous and the BBC is liberal and has an agenda about this war. It drives me crazy that the Repugs think the BBC is liberal because it asked hard questions about this war. The BBC’s politics are European and have nothing to do with Repugs and Dems.
Sunlight @
39
Make them care. Write to the MSM.
Or be your own media and spread the word.
dmg @
17
You are exactly right.
Maddy @ 44
I know the feeling, Maddy. Believe me.
Best talking point:
Cui bono?
Iran - stronger
OBL - Stronger
Pakistan - stronger
USA - weaker
Iraq - weaker
USA Constitution - weaker
Ned in Zurich @ 37
I was thinking about that post the other day. Cole should update it to reflect the situation since then.
I know this is going to go nowhere. But the way the Lancet study was implemented is deeply problematic, and the results are too consequently.
If 50,000 or 100,000 or 150,000 Iraqis have died because of the war, it’s an atrocity of unbelievable proportions.
As though if the war has killed fewer Iraqis in such a relatively short time than Saddam did during his reign - Saddam Hussein! -, that would put things in perspective. No. It’s just atrocious.
Heartbreaking. How are we to make amends for this horror?
And let us not forget: there are many more who survived violence but have been badly, and permanently, injured.
The Bush administration, full of utterly insane megalomaniacs, is proud of itself, for having destroyed a nation, perhaps forever. And their casus belli, the claim under which they dragged us to war, amounts to this: “I don’t like Saddam. He’s a bad guy.” I remain surprised that other countries don’t say, “well, Bush wasn’t really elected in 2000—Gore won the popular vote, after all, and Bush cronies on the Supreme Court put him in office, a clear sign of corruption—and most Americans don’t like what Bush is doing to their country. Plus he has violated the Constitution with the Patriot Act. So let’s invade America, take him out, and set his people free.” That’s basically the policy that led Bush’s White House into Iraq.
This opening from digby cracked me up.
Both digby and the link to emptywheel are worth reading, but I just got a laugh from the imagery. Emptywheel’s at it again, deep in the weeds, and the Republicans are not safe.
Also, there is something curious going on in the Middle East. All the US and UK and Israeli bullying is pushing the Saudis closer to the Iranians.
-GSD
To put in another perspective,
9/11 and the Iraq war have both killed about 3,000 Americans. That’s 1 out of 100,000 Americans for each of those tragedies. For the math challenged among you, that’s 2500 times fewer deaths on a per capita basis than we have inflicted on the Iraqi people. 2500 times more mayhem. No wonder they want us gone.
mvs @
28
They didn’t in Falluja - after the four Blackwater mercenaries were hideously murdered there, the US military set up a cordon intended to keep all “military age” males in the city.
The US military turned Fllujah into a free-fire zone, with sniper attacks, artillery, and weapons all targeted on the remaining population. The US military occupied the Falluja hospital and acknowledged their motivation was to prevent casualties from being reported.
US military snipers killed civilians in ambulances in Falluja.
Nope, males in Iraq don’t stand much of a chance.
Official US military policy is to use civilians as targets for mass reprisals in response to insurgents’ military attacks upon the US military occupiers.
Violent reprisals against civilians were cause for execution of German and Japanese military brass and senior leaders in the post-WWII war crimes trials.
I look forward to the day the US military war criminals responsible for reprisals against the civilian population of Falluja are looking around the dock in the the Hague (or Germany, or Belgium, or…) wondering how they ever got there.
Just like the CIA’s ex-station chief in Italy.
He also thought he was immune from international law.
And today he is on the run.
Winds are changing.
Thanks for a great post, Phoenix Woman
The numbers are shameful - horrible and shameful. But just imagine if the “offical” death toll of 65,000 were correct. Based upon the figures given in the post, that’s STILL more than one and a half times the rate of casualties under Saddam (by extrapolating the years involved). Are we to understand that they are bragging? Pitiful.
-MS
From the BBC (Auntie or the Beeb):
No comment necessary.
Jeff @ 52
Whenever I’ve had this argument (online) with Repubs, they first claim that the numbers are overblown and then they SCREAM that Sadaam killed more, so that makes it OK. That’s the Repubs all over. It wasn’t OK when Sadaam did it, so why is OK when we do it? And while I’m at it, if it wasn’t OK if Bill Clinton did it, why is it OK when Bush did it? It’s just their way of making facts seem like partisanship. Scientists don’t know anything. Statistics are meant to be misinterpretted. MSM is a bunch of Liberal b.s. The facts just can’t get through that.
Just a hint of the violence, in this story about how the police in Tal Far, who have been the targets in recent killings, went on a rampage and killed dozens of Sunni men/boys in retaliation. This was the city where Petraeus’s strategy “succeeded.”
Dozens killed in reprisal attacks.
When is bush going to realize that after years of lying about WMD, Saddam-Al Queida links, Yellowcake, promising to fire the guys who outed Valerie, ignoring Scott Foley picking up congressional paiges that bush and the GOP have NO CREDITABILTY left! The situation is so bad that bush is actually hurting his cause by PERSONALLY supporting it (when is Rove going to break it to him). bush thinks that the Dems have gone to far and like a gambler who thinks he’s due bush is betting heavy and refusing to negotiate with congress. bush thinks that he can flip his poll numbers by taking a strong stand against the Dems over the war issue. Thankfuly bush’s record of accomplishment is as bad as his integrity. Even the people who support the president’s views don’t think that he, bush is the man with any plan to win the war! bush himself lying and incompetent is the issue now!
Pachacutec @
36
Keep us inline Pach with an occasional nudge. Will send money as I am able as will others, this is money well spent.
[Modnote: if you are going to use bold, please be careful to close it, thanks]
GSD @
45
Great article, GSD, especially contrasted with US cableheads’ shouts about “Iran provoking a war” (Scarborough, et al.)
Mack @ 50
Royal House of Saud: richer and stronger
Sorry Mod, something malfunctioned..my brain
Thank you Phoenix Woman for this important and gruesome reminder. I am always struck dumb by friends who refuse to look at the figures, much less the pictures of what we have wrought– the wounded, the dead, the grieving survivors.
It’s bad enough that we cannot see the flag-draped coffins.
But we really have no idea of the horror– 9/11 happens every day over “there”.
the numbers in pictures from Reed College Memorial;
“3,000 red flags represent the 3,055 American soldiers who have died in the war in Iraq.
“655,000 Iraqis have died. Each of the 120,000 white flags represent 6 Iraqi soldiers and civilians who have died in the War in Iraq”
link
She denied him budget items for him to conduct a more thorough investigation!!!
OBSTRUCTION!
clem @
27
To give it more perspective, if we were to lose the same percentage of people, the total would be 7.5 MILLION people.
problems for bush are shifting from minor to major: saudis pull back support of iraq war
When this study came out the results were discounted (as was the one from 2 years before by the same authors) as way too high. The methods are state of the art and should provide better estimates than just visiting the morgue which misses deaths not in the morgue.
The potential biases in this report would seem to result in an undercount of deaths rather than an overcount. An example, if a household had enough deaths so as to be unable to maintain its structure or if everyone was killed, those would not be counted.
One of the biggest results of this whatever the totals is the worsening (comparisons are to pre-invasion). From Table 4 Burnham 2006:
3/03-4/04-risk of death 1.5 (50% more likely to die), 5/04-5/05-risk of death 2.2 (over 2X as likely to die), and 6/05-6/06 - risk of death 3.6 (almost 4X as likely to die). This is easier to follow in a table, sorry.
The results of the later paper (Burnham 2006) confirmed the results from the earlier paper with similar methodology (Roberts 2004).
Other criticisms made included the pre-war mortality rate of 5.5 per 1,000 (US is 8.3 per 1,000). This is attributable to our older population distribution and is not unexpected.
This is an important and compelling paper. I have seen no credible attacks on its methods.
My only disagreement is when the USA gets blamed for ALL the casualties, no matter what the number might be. (on #’s, I suspect the Brits are closer to the actual tally)
I firmly oppose this war, built upon lies as pretext. But I don’t blame USA for ALL the killings. Even a quick read of many above comments shows killings being done by one Iraqi group against another. There’s a lot of anger bottled up in the Iraqi people, and the anger spews forth in the many bombings/killings as listed above.
I strongly suspect that even if we pulled out immediately, the killings over there would continue unabated. As I said, there’s just alot of anger bottled up over there…but I respectfully disagree that USA is all to blame.
Ghostman
Mr. Dunce: Aren’t A, B, and C reasonable enough for US troops after redeployment?
Dru @ 68
There’s also zero royal flags representing the number of Bush family members who have served or will serve.
Bush made his tough talk comments in a speech before the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, didn’t he?
man, they have no sense of irony over at the white house, do they?
The history of the supplemental has been interesting. Republicans pooh-poohed it in the House saying that Pelosi couldn’t even get her own party to support it. Then it passed with its timetables intact. 198 House Republicans voted to defund the troops. The media said nothing. Bush came out with his veto threat, promising to defund the troops. Even though this is a must pass piece of legislation, the media response was again silence. Republicans hoped to strike timetables from the Senate version. After all, they had Independent for self Joe Lieberman and the WTF is he thinking nutcase Pryor as well as other conservative Democrats to count on. But it didn’t work out for them. 46 Republican Senators voted to defund the troops. Bush again promised to veto and the media remained silent.
Isn’t it about time the media began to ask why do Republicans hate our troops? Throwing temper tantrums and using our troops as a political football when they lose votes fair and square is not, I repeat not, supporting the troops. If Democrats played such games, the media would crucify them. Since it’s Republicans the silence is deafening.
McCaffrey assessment in WaPo:
I disagree with you Ghostman @ 72 (welcome back, btw).
We invaded and engineered/fostered the sectarian/civil war.
It’s all the fault of the “coalition of the willing” … i.e. our fault.
All of it.
Biodun #73,
It’s a quibble but the clock for redeployment starts on October 1. 180 days from October 1 (and taking into account that 2008 is a leap year) is March 29, 2008. This is a case of where someone cited March 31 and everyone piled on, but the legislation does not cite a March date at all.
dmg @ 75
Imagine the applause W got when he talked about all the PORK in this appropriations bill!
TeddySanFran @ 80
Or when he said he was big on bull.
We’re on our way outof Iraq!
Hey, Ghostman, welcome back. I respectfully disagree with you. Like it or not, Sadam Hussein, as did Marshall Tito, held the country’s gyre pretty tightly. We loosed a blood-dimmed tide when we invaded. It falls to us to claim those deaths that occur during our reign, Iraqi-on-Iraqi or not.
Hugh @ 79:
Senate: March 31, 2008–>120 days?
House: March 1, 2008–>180 days?
Assuming a US population of 250 million, that’s proportional to killing about six million Americans.
How would we feel if six million of our people were killed?
anybody got a link to the video of Pelosi’s statement today? The one where she told Bush to rachet down the threats?
Jon Stewart on Iraq Funding and Timetable Legislation
curiousgeorge @ 85
The Bush family seems incapable of even having feelings about that. For them, it’s like having feeling about livestock.
Phoenix Woman, thank you for this post.
We will bear this shame forever. There is nothing we can do to make it not be true: all those people are dead and all those lives are ruined and all that ill will is real.
We can blame it on George W. Bush, but when we do we lie like he does. This is America. He was the prime mover, but We The People are the ultimate authority, the ultimate deciders.
Until we impeach this president, we are the ultimate endorsers of his crimes. Until Congress impeaches this president, the blood is on all their hands. And I believe we will impeach this president, if only to try to wash the blood off and for some to pretend it was never there.
Maddy @ 63
I think we may put up one of those thermometers, the way we did for Marcy’s book.
randiego @ 86
“Calm down, take a deep breath”
Don’t know if anyone has posted this yet:
New story up on the NY Times website about the Arab League summit:
“The king of Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah, condemned the presence of American forces in Iraq as an “illegitimate foreign occupation” in a speech today….”
The Saudis had sent a “thanks, but we’re not available on April 17th” response to a C Augustus (the term that Charles Pierce uses for the Deciderer) invitation to a state dinner next month. And King Abdullah of Jordan has turned down an invitation, too, for September 2007. Hmmmm. Wasn’t Bush supposed to have many personal contacts through his dad?
things come undone @
25
Actually, this idiot is probably going to try to be the 2nd president in history to drop a nuc in an armed conflict. He thinks history will exonerate him, a la Truman.
curiousgeorge @ 85
Well, the deaths of 3000 on 9/11 “justified” the above and much more according to the vast majority of the people and our Congress…
We missed the biggest opportunity ever offered to us in the wake of that tragedy…
njprogressive @ 92
Teddy at 91: many thanks.
The US government against itself in the War on Terror:
randiego @ 96
The lady knows how to talk to obstreperous children, that’s for sure.
Fourth time over the past six months I will have posted this here:
USAF claims of Iraqi deaths in Gulf War 1991 - 250,000
UN claims of premature Iraqi deaths due to destruction of civilian infrastructure (water sanitation/supply, electrical grid, food and medicine distribution) during CLINTON adminitration - 500,000
Lancet Study of Iraqi violent deaths 2003-2006 - 605,000
Additional Iraqi mortality 2002-2007 over pre-Gulf War I levels - 500,000
Iraqi injured 1991-2007 - over 1,000,000
Iraqi internal refugees now - 1,500,000
Displaced Iraqis outside the border - 1,500,000
Total Iraqi casualties and refugees by US actions - 5,855,000
WAIT…WAIT! If we say the the US population is around 290,000,000…2.5% of that population would be 7,250,000 killed. If we say that would happen over 4 years (4*365 days = 1,460 days). So, 7,250,000 americans divided by 1,460 days = 4,966 killed a day…almost twice as much as the 911 tragedy…every day for 4 years…anybody else think our country is completely insane?
cliff