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McCaskill's people feel really good about their numbers holding up. They're looking at their internals and where the votes have yet to come in.
You go, Claire! Way to declare victory and seize the narrative. With Tester hanging on in Montana, the Senate is in play, pending recounts and sellouts.
UPDATE: Jim NoTalent is conceding, thanking Jesus, looking like he wants to cry.
UPDATE II: Listen to these idiots on TV saying that all these wins for Democrats are not really. . . wins for Democrats. People, fuck you. I have one word for you: MANDATE. We're still pitching a shutout.
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Go Claire! Go Webb! Go Tester!
Yippee!!!
Claire!!!
Congrats Missouri. Congrats Claire!
-GSD
Dems are looking good to take the senate. Webb up by 7800 now, McCaskill by 38000.
WHOO hoo!
Go FDL
Go Dems!
I love you guys!
EPU’d on election law and rules in the US Senate. Go to about 190 or 200 on the last thread.
Good night.
We Got OTV!
outstanding!!!
OMG if we take the Senate too…I will be so freaking happy. I hope Limbaugh craps his pants.
talent conceding now
MsAnnaNOLA @
9
Nah, he’s just wolfing down some Oxycontin right about now…
A house that is 235 dems to 200 repugs,
and a senate in the dems hands 51 to 49
Can we all say tsunami, democratic victory, and Rove and Melhman eating CROW for days.
It will end up being blamed ON Bush by the repugs, because as a lame duck he is NOW expendable.
What was that about THE math Mr. Rove?
-GSD
My eyes are crossed…. someone pinch me… is all we need now MONTANA?
(and of course, a VA Certification)
Talent conceding to McCaskill in Missouri!!!!
Prof @
7
Thanks for the info!
Hey, Rush, MO just gave you a big FU!
Do you have pictures of Tester? I want to create a collage of Republicans who look like they are going to cry.
Is it too early to start crowing about the Progressive Democrat’s “MANDATE?”
Poor Republicans, now they have no Talent.
-GSD
Biggest factor in Missouri race: Michael J. Fox setting up trap for Rush Limbaugh, no question about it.
I had a glass of warm milk and fell asleep early tonight and awoke just now from a dream about subpoena power…what did I miss?
http://patrickjfitzgerald.blogspot.com
yes, testaroo - just Montana!
of course, be nice if Pombo and Doolittle would go
Her numbers have done more than hold up. Congratulations, Claire!
msnbc calls it for mccaskill
Yeah!! omg
EPU’d from last Congress:
Senators:
Chafee
Santorum
Dewine
Allen
Tallent
Burns
Representatives - we don’t have that much space.
HOORAY for Claire!
NOW…from the previous thread
She failed to support ned, so that negates everything else she’s ever done.
You can’t have it both ways. you can’t claim to be anti-war and support a pro-war candidate.
One trumps the other. DiFi has to go.
GSD @ 13
That’s what he gets for letting Junya help him count.
If McCaskill’s win can be tied to the stem cell vote, this could (further) cook Frist’s chances in 2008.
My link to some of the law on certifying election results in the US Senate is at my comment on the last thread.
It’s only part.
Really good night.
zzzz
MsAnnaNOLA @ 9
Hr’ll have lots of bulk Depends packs, plus a lot of ‘air-sickeness’ bags within reach for the next week or two.
In another squeaker, my Congresswoman barely retains her seat:
U.S. House - District 9 - 209 of 548 Precincts Reporting
Oakland
Name Party Votes Pct
Lee, Barbara (i) Dem 61,170 83.96
den Dulk, John GOP 9,482 13.02
Eyer, James Lib 2,202 3.02
Aquaria, any more thoughts on Montana? I think it has to be close to being in the bag.
I can’t believe this is happening.
Frist, with Limbaugh’s help, lost the Senate for the Rethugs.
My daughter is going to be SO happy in the morning, the token California-raised liberal in Shell Knob, MO.
She can keep the McCaskill sticker on her pickup.
O’ Darkthirty comin’soon.
Thanks to everyone involved tonight.
Let the ass beatin’s begin.
Goodnight.
This is going deep, even the local Reps are going down in flames…man, this is cool
Doolittle’s up, but Pombo’s down. Still too close to call.
GSD @ 13
goddamn, Karl was bluffing after all. I had to see it to believe it.
Jon Tester Conrad Burns
113228 100976
punaise @ 32
It’s an epidemic - mine too:
U.S. House - District 28 - 5 of 277 Precincts Reporting
North Hollywood
Name Party Votes Pct
Berman, Howard (i) Dem 14,006 67.28
Kesselman, Stanley GOP 5,587 26.84
De Lear, Byron Grn 659 3.17
Ross, Kelley Lib 566 2.72
I shoulda gone to bed hours ago. I got to show up for work wearing a suit and tie (man, I’m too old for that crap!) in a few hours.
But I can’t. I’ve been waiting for this for about, oh, three centuries.
Is Pombo really dead?
omg russert just brought up Lieberman going with the Reich wing.
He bugs me.
woo fucking hoo!
Jeff Greenfield now saying that Katrina was a big factor in the election.
Woo hooooo!!! I just got back from work to find out that Hayworth is outta here, and we’re going to have a Democratic Senate. I’m happy-dancing all over my living room.
Time for a new abacus Mr. Rove.
I am getting pissed at all of these pathetic wingers calling into talkradio and carping.
Losers.
-GSD
Pach, thanks for staying up late! Much appreciated!
Muzzy @ 39
When the party jumped all over the John Kerry gaffe, I knew they were shooting blanks.
-GSD
Now, I want all you people who told me Karl Rove was unbeatable to apologize to me, personally. I got yelled at when I got grouchy with the people who said the only thing we could ever do was lose lose lose.
MT’s gonna depend on Bozeman and some other middling-size cities. The outlier small counties don’t have enough votes to make an impact, but Gallatin (Bozeman) and Ravalli (Hamilton) counties do.
Watch them. If Tester’s still holding after they report, it’s probably his.
Sorry Pach!
I can hardly believe this. Last wave I remember was in 1994 and it was not a happy one like this.
MSNBC refering to the robocalls as corrosive. But, I can’t believe it, refering to it in neurtral terms, as “one party smearing another” or something like that.
Bozos.
U.S. House - District 11 - 294 of 870 Precincts Reporting
Tracy
Name Party Votes Pct
McNerney, Jerry Dem 37,308 51.25
Pombo, Richard (i) GOP 35,487 48.75
Jacqrat @
19
compared to the 2004 Mandate????
Another point from Greenfield that I hadn’t thought of: There’s no “nuclear option” in the Senate any more.
Oh, and Webb’s up by more and more.
I may be stupid, and I’ve watched these election night calls before, but it still seems premature for Ford or Talent to quit. They must have awfully good polling.
So, Tester will survive the “tightening race” and the “hard closing” Burns and Webb-Allen will probably be the final result announced — and that appears to be a Webb win.
Can we all say Inside Straight?
Woo hoo!
The Blue Tsunami is rolling along.
punaise @ 55
I’m liking this…
WHOA: CT-04 (?) within 250 votes
———–
Party Candidate Votes V%
D Joe COURTNEY 117,287 50
R Rob SIMMONS 117,048 50
I wish I had saved the call for change number of the drunk redneck in Missouri who got abusive when I asked him if I could count on his vote for Claire McCaskill.
I’d call him back right now.
Can a senator be recalled?
If Joe fucks up, can the voters of CT recall him like a city council member?
How about this scenario:
Pelosi and Reid requesting a meeting with Bush and offer two options:
1) Cooperate with Democrats on 100-hour legislation in Jan, 2007, i.e. no use of veto pen on reasonable legislation.
2) Otherwise it is time to call in big guns, i.e. Conyers and others with subpoena power and start impeachment hearings shortly after that.
In other words, Pelosi and Reid has got Bush’s balls notwithstanding Joe Lieberman’s uncertain standing in Senate.
Don’t forget Libby’s court date with Fitz in January. Rove and Cheney will testify. Bush’s planned pardon for Libby is worthless now.
Yup.
We all owe Michael J. Fox now.
.
Pachacutec @ 50
I was calling for 7.99 Senate (.99 for Lamont beats Lieberman) and 35 house. I guess I’m overoptimistic so far. How many house we got?
And out in Wyoming, there’s just one county that hasn’t checked in yet. Carbon County has reported only 37% of their precinct. Gary Trauner leads his Republican opponent Barbara Cubin in that county 54%-39% so far (400 votes), but he’s behind overall by about 650. If he gets the same kind of support from the rest of Carbon County, WY would be sending a Dem to the next Congress.
Wouldn’t that be sweet?
MarkH @ 58
gutshot straight. Won on a big blue river…
Ohio constitutional races:
The all important Secretary of State, who will count the votes for President in ‘08: DEMOCRAT Brunner, supported by us, 54.2%.
Gov: DEM Strickland at 60%.
Atty Gen: DEM Dann at 52%.
Treasurer: DEM Cordray at 57%.
Auditor: REP at 51.5%.
Stem cell research up by more than 20,000. Webb up by over 10,000.
MarkH @ 58
I just prefer ASSES KICKED.
Burns is barely making a dent in Tester. WHere’s Burns from, in MT? I have a feeling that one of the few counties left are his stomping grounds. That’s the ONLY hope he has left.
ifthethunderdontgetya @ 65
AP says 31
teh math!
CNN showing Webb increasing his lead to almost 12,000:
Webb - 1,167,694
Allen - 1,155,950
Here’s some annoying shit:
ABC’s take on things right now:
Like they’re dying to get this over with.
Hmm, ET’s been notably absent. Any word on Diane Benson?
It seems like a million years ago but I wrote this last night and posted it here this morning. If you read them before just pass over them now. Republican memes
1) If Republicans lose, Democrats will become responsible for “Republican” failures.
Answer: Democrats will be able to exercise oversight. They should investigate Republican failures and stop Bush Administration excesses and overreach but they will not be able to clean up Bush’s messes as long as Bush is in power and can veto and obstruct their actions.
2) If Democrats win, it will be due to Rahm Emanuel, Chuck Schumer, and Establishment Democrats.
Answer: It was Howard Dean who pursued and put in place the 50 State Strategy of challenging the Republicans across the board. Schumer and Emanuel ignored many contestable races, came late to others, and recruited candidates who were far more conservative than they needed to be to win the race.
3) If Democrats don’t win big, they lose and the Republicans win by default.
Answer: If the Democrats win, they win, period. As with meme 1, this is the idea that everything is good for the Republicans: If they win, they win. Yet even if they lose, we are supposed to believe they win.
4) Both parties over read their mandate. So if Democrats win, they won’t have a “real” mandate. A variant of this is that voters are voting against Republicans but are not voting for Democrats so again, no mandate.
Answer: This is a restatement of memes 1 and 3 and contains the idea that if Democrats win it doesn’t count. How many times have you heard the media challenge the claim of a Republican mandate, real or imagined? I thought so. None of this stopped Reagan in 1980 from claiming a mandate even though the election was widely seen as a rejection of Jimmy Carter or George Bush behaving in a similar way in 2000 even though he lost the popular vote (and should have lost the electoral one as well).
5) If Democrats win and Bush reaches out to them, they should be willing to compromise. Variant: If Democrats win, it is time to be bipartisan.
Answer: The proof is in the pudding. Bush has spent the last 5 1/2 years rejecting any semblance of compromise and bipartisanship with Democrats. His basic philosophy remains “My way or the highway”, “You are either with me or with the terrorists”. Even those so-called compromises with Republican Senators: Arlen Specter on warrantless NSA wiretapping and Warner, McCain, and Graham on torture and military commissions have been essentially cave-ins to White House positions. They have been compromises in name only. If Bush wants compromise, he’ll have to do more than call for it. He will have to take the lead in actually doing it. Let him propose the compromises and let us see if they are real. OK, not holding my breath on this one.
And with that I too say goodnight and best wishes to all.
newtonusr @ 72
teh meth!
montag @ 75
He said a couple of threads back that it looked like Young retains his seat.
Margot @ 53
Hi Margot! Aren’t you glad ken blackwell can’t steal another election? But he still knocked a lot of Democratic voters out in Ohio today, that sleaze.
VT Congress—-win for DEM which was not a given early in the race. It turns out that egrSon knows his nephew.
punaise @ 77
One of these days, Punaise… gotta meet up and have a beer or two.
punaise @ 77
bows deeply and slowly…
On MANDATE
Though not all the data is quite in, the Senate popular vote, aggregated over all races, is going to be
35.7 M for Dems
28.1 M for Republicans
That’s 55.95%-44.05%.
How reliable is this estimate? Not quite everything is counted yet. But pre-election, with no data at all from today, this morning I predicted the Senate popular fraction (it’s timestamped at mydd) as 55.88%-44.12%. Ok, so I missed by 0.07%.
So, given that most races are over 90%, and this was very predictable even without today’s data, the estimate above is probably pretty reliable.
The House aggregate vote is harder to do, and it’s too late to be confident I’ll get everything into the spreadsheets right.
Democratic candidates for Senate outperformed Republicans by 12 points nationally.
That’s a mandate.
John Tester up by 4 points!
montag @ 75
No news is bad news in this case. Diane is going down big: 57-40% with 56% tallied. CNN calls it for Don Young.
I called 6 of one, half a dozen of the other - which was my cowardly way of only making a senate guess.
I had no idea the house would go so big - 31 seats AND COUNTING.
Unbefreakinlievable.
I guess Rove is as good at math as Bush is at speaking
Tester is waiting to declare victory and make it official! Only 65 percent of votes has been counted in Montana right now.
this morning, for the very first time in many years, I had a little hope… tonight? I don’t know - fer sure, relieved!
sleeping now, sleeping well!
Good night all
CT-02 above…. my error
D Courtney
117,287 50%
R Simmons
(Incumbent)
117,048 50%
97% of precincts reporting
The Democrats should refuse to negotiate with Bush until he takes back all of his claims that if the Democrats win the terrorists win.
Peri-fucking-od.
-GSD
I just realized that I have been on this site for 17 straight hours.
My races: Webb has declared victory, and we will see if it sticks. Kissell is in a dead heat with nearly all precincts reported. Laesch will not win–THIS TIME. Benson will not win–THIS TIME. Watch out for ‘08 people.
Jacqrat @ 81
punaise @ 77
newtonusr @ 72
teh math!
teh meth!
One of these days, Punaise… gotta meet up and have a beer or two.
sounds great!
how about an East Bay or Bay Area FDL meet ‘n greet?
Guitar_Playing_Bastard @ 62
Our experience in Oregon with Packwood leads me to believe that Senators CANNOT be recalled. Packwood eventually resigned. Good luck getting LIEbermanto do that.
Peterr @
85
http://www.adn.com/
Goddamit, I’m staying up intil they call Montana. Who’s staying up with me?
I guess Arlo Guthrie would be proper at this tiem
Good morning America How are you.
Conrad Burns is on CNN now! Ready to concede?
God damn, I love most of the results of tonight, but I sure as shit detest, loathe, despise, hate and deplore the very existence the very LIFER of Joe Lieberman.
What a waste of skin.
Ten counties left in MT, a few of them big for MT.
Watch for Gallatin, Ravalli, and Mineral or Meagher (one of those two–can’t remember which.) If those break for Tester, it’s over.
Burns:
I have a plan to concede, but I’m not gonna tell you!
-GSD
Guitar_Playing_Bastard @ 97
I’m here with you.
Guitar_Playing_Bastard @ 97
I am. Already contemplating the call I’m making to work before I go to bed.
Guitar_Playing_Bastard @ 97
I’m there with you!
I’m staying up. It ain’t over til its over.
Senators cannot be recalled. If for any reason they are unable to fulfill their term, the Governor (in the Lieberman case, Jodi Rell, a Republican) appoints their successor.
Please, please please let Burns concede.
Webb claimed victory and so did McCaskle.
Ah, the Dubya gambit!
Well, you never know when you can find a sympathetic Supreme Court Justice, willing to stop a vote count because it could cause irreparable harm to your apparent victory if the lead in the vote count were to change from you to your opponent . . .
. . . I know that sounds like circuitous self-rationalizing bullshit, but it worked for Justice Scalia!
I’m in…
egregious @ 68
Egregious, I think the tv had Marc Dann ahead of Betty (I’m only guilty of doing nothing) Montgomery by a small amount. Marc Dann is supported by FDL, for Attorney General. He can put these crooks in jail.
Fitz!
Unbelievable. I lived 40 years in Springfield, Mo., the buckle on the Bible belt, the last 9 in St. Lou. Didn’t ever really believe Claire could pull it off, because of my downstate roots, but she ran a GREAT campaign: grass roots issues and irrepressible optimism. First the Cardinals, now this. I’m just kinda giddy. GO JON TESTER!!
I’m here. Tester looks just like a guy I work with, and kinda has his devil may care good old boy charm, too. It’s like watching a friend run for office. :)
Frank Probst @ 103
I feel like I live in America again, so I’m staying.
Anything but Pelosi; we have the votes; a semi-sympathetic corporate whore is not needed. Nor is torture or the eliminatiation of habeas corpus Move now.
Burns dropping fast, Webb looking good.
So … does Lieberman turn Republican? Does Specter turn Dem? Snowe? Hegel?
I’m in … as long as Aquaria keeps feeding us the juice.
stl.tom @
113
Yeah but the Niners beat the Rams. :-P
So if Webb holds >11,000 lead, Allen has to pay for the recount rather than taxpayers? I like it.
LJ/Aquaria @ 114
I met Tester at an SF fundraiser this summer - he’s the real deal
So am I. No way I go to bed til MT is called.
clif @ 98
That would be Steve Goodman. Arlo sang it, but Steve wrote it.
And as a die hard Cubs fan, Steve probably would have liked tonight. After years of Dems saying “Wait til next year!” next year finally came.
Me too ( mind you its 9.30 am where I am…)
Best line of the Night
Ed Rollins on Charlie Rose : ” Karl Rove can’t read polls “
Primordial, it’s a 1% lead, I think.
Jon Tester Conrad Burns
113405 100976
These last few MT counties are pulling a damned VA on us!
Lieberman probably got Shays re-elected
Another “new” [120 comments already] thread? I can’t begin to keep up.
Montana governor is saying Tester-Burns race will be called in next half-hour!
Big losers tonight: George Allen and Rick Santorum both took big hits to their Presidential bids. To a lesser extent, Bill Frist will take a hit, since his retirement put Tennessee in play–he’s going to take some blame for losing the Senate.
California numbers seem hinky to me. Especially on proposals and Debra Bowen for Sec. of State. I know San Diego is screwy with our registrar not counting paper ballots until Thursday! (It will probably not be finalized for a week - heard on Velvet Revolution program tonight).
We so need to see numbers that eliminate Bilbray, Doolittle and Pombo. A real clean sweep!
This doesn’t diminish my joy over the house win and possible senate. Jesus wept.
Hey Pach, are you still here? What’s the 411 on Amy Walter. Is she on our team, or what?