
The Age of Fallibility: Consequences of the War on Terror is an ambitious and serious book, and one which propels an incredibly politically incorrect (2006 version) argument imperative for our times. If you have not had the time to read the book, I wholeheartedly recommend you do so.
Let's begin, first, with Mr. Soros himself. A longtime philanthropist and childhood escapee from Nazi Germany, experience has made him painfully aware of what folly the madness of crowds can propel. He's made a career of recognizing the madness of crowds in financial markets, betting against the herd to become one of the world's wealthiest men. He brings those same sensitivities to the current delusional bubble in American politics.
But let's start at the beginning: Soros begins his discussion from a core philosphical framework, some first principles through which he comes to understand and explain the nature of human cognition, knowledge acquisition, rationality and the limits of rationality. In fact, he is not primarily a political thinker or even one comfortable in the rough and tumble world of hardcore politics.
Having had the opportunity to discuss his book with him, I can tell you Mr. Soros longs for a world where rational people can put their arguments into the public domain for consideration by a fair and willing citizen audience. He is not a partisan, temperamentally predisposed to fight for any political party. By personality, he prefers calm centrists far more than I do, as my diagnosis of what is unfortunately politically necessary in this age of polarization and monumental global stakes probably differs a bit from his (rabid lamb that I am). But on the fundamental ideas put forward in his book, he and I are in agreement.
The first part of the book lays out his philosophical first principles, the upshot of which is that no individual can perfectly know the full truth. Therefore, human societies must protect themselves from gross error by committing themselves to becoming and remaining open societies, places where all voices can be heard and considered. A commitment to open society is the ultimate cure, in Soros' view, to our current Age of Fallibility.
In the second part of the book, Mr. Soros applies the principles delineated in the first part to our current national politics. He then makes this provocative point (from page 102):
But the war on terror was counterproductive. It embroiled the United States in an adventure that cannot succeed and from which it will be difficult to withdraw. In my judgment, it was in its response to 9/11 that the United States left reality behind and got lost in far-from-equilbrium territory. The terrorist attack was real indeed, and it required a strong response; but the response chosen by the Bush administration carried the notion into a fantasy land created by a misrepresentation of reality. What is worse, people still do not recognize the phantasmagoric element in the war on terror. I shall have a hard time getting my point across because the war on terror has been unquestioningly accepted by the public; indeed, it is seen as the natural response to the terrorist attacks of 9/11 even by those who are opposed to the Bush administration's policies.
In my interpretation, the war on terror is a false metaphor - the opposite of a fertile fallacy. It has been used by the Bush administration to further its own objectives, but those objectives are opposed to the principles of open society and harmful to the national interest. Eventually, the war on terror even proved detrimental to the Bush administration's own interests because it has had unintended adverse consequences: The invasion of Iraq turned into a disaster.
It find it quite tempting to quote at greater length. While Mr. Soros lays out in more patient, calm detail much of what I earlier discussed in this tub thumping protest piece (whose core argument has been echoed today by the NYT Editorial Page), I find his dissection of our current society and politics all the more devastating for being more comprehensive. Before he's done, he takes on our weakness as a "feel good society," nuclear proliferation, global warming and the global energy crisis. Did I mention you should buy this book?
I'm glad Jane will offer us the opportunity to discuss the book again next week in Part II of our review of The Age of Fallibility: Consequences of the War on Terror. But for the purposes of today's discussion, I'd like to make a bit of a transition to get some ideas flowing from the community here. The problem I'd like to highlight is underscored in the text I've chosen to quote: how can we as progressives reorient our society so that it comprehends that the so-called war on terror is a fallacy, a false metaphor? How do we do this when even Democrats intone the language of the "war on terror" to explain their policies and positions? How do we educate the culture so that it understands that the very notion of the "war on terror" we currently accept uncritically is entirely false?
When I wrote my provocative piece linked above, it drew a good deal of attention across the blogosphere, and the Yellow Elephant, 101st Fighting Keyboardist crew inhabited our comments section to fling feces, hurl threats, spew hate and share their colorful wishes for my gruesome, speedy demise (we deleted the worst and left the rest, without, may I add, collapsing to the fainting couch).
It seems to me there are two strategies open to progressives. First, we can directly counter the false "war on terror" metaphor directly by pointing out its falsehood and unreality. This is my position and Soros' position, though I am more aggressive in making the case forcefully in the political arena. To Soros, the "war on terror" metaphor is like a market bubble primed to pop. Alternately, progressives can take take the approach articulated well by John Aravosis at Americablog, a contrary position I myself find compelling and appealing on some level. In this approach, it can be argued that the war on terror is necessary, and it would be nice if we had actually begun one. In this approach, progressives would seek to redefine the "war on terror" on our own terms, arguing instead on behalf of our own, more realistic security strategies.
The differences between these two approaches are in part strategic and in part philosophical. Tactically and politically, it's an exceedingly difficult thing to do to redefine an overarching political metaphor and rhetorical cudgel so successfully deployed, in its way, by the other side. For my part, I don't believe you can take down failed conservative policies by deploying conservative rhetoric, even if you seek to redefine it. Progressives (and political movements in general) do not succeed by playing on the visiting field, utilizing what Lakoff describes as the other side's "frames." What's more, Democrats, including John Kerry in 2004, have sought without success to deploy this redefinition strategy, to disappointing results.
On another level, the philosophical difference between these alternate approaches relates to the applicability of the metaphor of "war" on a tactic, or on, as I described it in my previous post, an emotion. National security relies most on, as Soros argues, the protection and promotion of the principles of an open society, both at home and abroad. Moving the discussion to these terms, progressives may create an opportunity in the national dialogue to propel an alternate vision for security consistent both with our values and a pragmatic assessment of international reality.
In my view, moving the discussion to such alternate terrain allows us to make a meaningful case against the very truthfulness, applicability or strategic wisdom of the so-called "war on terror." It appears conservatives find these direct attacks on their faith-based ideology of a "war on terror" fundamentally threatening, evidenced by their determined rush into our comments section when we argued directly against it. This further suggests, in my view, that direct attacks on the very truthfulness and reality of a "war on terror" will be more effective in changing the national dialogue, if only because they will concentrate more attention on the fundamental issues at stake. Finding Mr. Soros' argument truthful, I further believe that, politically, it will ultimately be the most successful, even as it most certainly will encounter immediate, determined, harsh and irrational resistance.
I acknowledge, as Mr. Soros does, that ours is the minority view. Accordingly, I'd like to open this argument up to the community: which approach is best? Which approach is most truthful? And when philanthropic idealists like Mr. Soros become the subject of hateful, defamatory, false attacks based on his ideas, what should be done to defend him? If elected Democrats, presumably opponents of the current administration (Hi, Joe!), are to succeed in promoting the principles of an open society while attacking the prevailing conception of the "war on terror," what must be done to embolden them to make the necessary case? Finally, isn't the "war on terror" falsehood the shoehorn the right wing is trying to use to slip us uncritically into war with Iran, against all reason or sober assessment of our national security interests and strategic priorities?
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Hello, Pach. This will be an enjoyable discussion.
Please confine discussion in this thread to the topic. Other topics can continue in the thread just below this one. Thanks!
Hi Pach, It’s beautiful today where I live, but I was so dumbfounded by this book that here I am, inside, on my computer, hoping there will be more than 3 of us ;-)
Especially relevant for my thoughts to start out: “some first principles through which he comes to understand and explain the nature of human cognition, knowledge acquisition,
I think this is part of Soros’s strength, and it inevitably leads one to your conclusion, which I interpret as: “expose the WOT as the fraud that it is.”
I find it ironic that free market fundamentalists hate Soros so much. He’s what they all wannabe.
I am about 2/3 of the way through this book. It is thought-provoking but I’m finding it a difficult read, although I really like the concept of “equilibrium”. IMO it will be very difficult to re-define the “war on terror” and I’m not sure progressives should even want to. Those who pay 5 minutes of attention to world events once/week can learn the GWOT has become a joke or fruitless but probably won’t stick around long enough to learn a new definition. Better to frame the issue using different words.
Beautiful here today too (another SoCal resident)
I’ll also add that I was familiar with Karl Popper’s work on philosophy of science, and that I think much of this book is, unfortunately, too ‘intellectual’ for many Americans… but very, very important for our future.
Soros is an example of exactly what is WRONG with the stupid liberals. Instead of looking at the problem operationally and analytically, he decides to play philosopher. He would never make an investment in an enterprise as poorly thought out as his political activity. Where is the smart marketing organization to sell the idea of an open society, rationality, tolerance and the other virtues that Mr. Soros claims to support. It should be pretty damn obvious that the only people who you can persuade with facts, logic, and reason are already on your side. Preaching to the choir is not productive.
the continued linkage in much US news to Iran and Syria as being the real powers behind terrorist attacks on Israel is very disquieting. It is being alleged that Iran is fomenting this kerfuffle so as to obfuscate their non-acquiescence on the uranium-enrichment issue. We all know how the Bush Administration has been salivating at the prospects of “dealing with Iran” — hammering on the Iran equals terrorism angle is the ideological softening-up going now.
citizen k either works for a dysfunctional biz outfit, or knows nothing of good biz practices.
At the core, SUCCESSFUL businesses hold very clear principles. See “Built to Last”, a Biz School classic. Based on the fact that it unearthed the not-so-startling fact that every solid, fiscally well managed corp has at its core a set of guiding principles.
citizen k, educate yourself so your life will be more useful.
This book was such an exceptional read. Let me just say that up front. And I adored the philosophical colloquy at the start of it. That said, it is also a tough read — and this is a discussion that so needs to be had in this country and around the world right now.
What is the best means to eradicate terrorism and the need for extremist ideology? Just looking at the news from the Middle East today, I sure wish I had some easy answers. But there are NO easy answers on this — which is part of what Mr. Soros is saying, and I fear that the Bush Administration does not have the patience for laying a long-term foundation and then the systematic building blocks which are required to allow for a more sustainable and equitable future for the cast-offs who are rushing to so many of the extremist positions, especially those which advocate violence as a means of revenge for current situations.
And without a change of course, I fear where things will continue to go…and for the safety not just of myself and my family now, but for my child and her family in whatever future spins out from here. I truly hope that everyone will read this book and begin this discussion.
One thing I’ve learned about Soros from reading a few of his books is that he is not a true believer. He learns from experience and adjusts accordingly, NOT like SOME people we know.
citizen k:
Your opinion is your own, but I think you’re out of line.
Mr. Soros has done the public a tremendous service by using his platform and intelligence to advance this argument. He purposely reached out to those of us who do know a thing or two about getting ideas out into the national discussion because he understands his strengths and ours.
I’m not going to be very patient with attacks on Soros when he has so manifestly done everyone here a great service.
How do you “sell” non-easy answers and laying the groundwork to the voting public?
Citizen K at 8;
I beg to differ, Soros is hardly stupid and liberal in teh way you think he is. He has created ‘democracy centers’ in each Eastern European country after the Berlin wall fell and promoted real democratic principles long before the neocons and George Bush made a travesty of that idea.
If you’re going to criticize, know what you’re talking about.
Also, FYI, totally intriguing that citizen k misses (as do most conservatives) the fundamental fact that biz only addressses its customers, shareholders, vendors. Politics is actually much more complex. It has to deal with **everyone** — much more complicated proposition.
And Soros does not play philosopher, IMHO. He draws on a very rigorous thought process to identify what is True, what is False.
In today’s politics, the truth is thought not to matter, and those who create artifice (like Rove) are celebrated. Soros speaks about the dangers of this — we’re caught admiring our own image in the mirror, while the world as it is diverges farther away from our assumptions about it.
It leaves us LESS powerful, because we can’t grapple with reality (ie, things as they are, not as we want or desire).
kalina77:
I’m glad you brought out Soros’ very successful work in promoting open societies in Eastern Europe through his foundation. He descibes those efforts at some length in the book for illustrative purposes, and I did not get to cover that in my main discussion post.
Also, yes, the book is a difficult read. So what? Who says that everything has to be populist? The idea here is for intelligent people to have an intelligent discussion. It’s the politicans’ job to translate those ideas into a Reader’s Digest version…
I think this is part of Soros’s strength, and it inevitably leads one to your conclusion, which I interpret as: “expose the WOT as the fraud that it is.”
The War On Terror’s primary purpose is to conceal the war on reality and reason.
In today’s politics, the truth is thought not to matter, and those who create artifice (like Rove) are celebrated. Soros speaks about the dangers of this — we’re caught admiring our own image in the mirror, while the world as it is diverges farther away from our assumptions about it.
I haven’t read the book, but this covers two huge problems in one comment: One is the media’s lack of interest in presenting the truth; the other is a pervasive belief that America is virtuous by definition, so anyone who says America is doing bad things is a crazy unpatriotic America-hater.
kak at 15 — that is something with which I have been wrestling for the last couple fo weeks, actually. Messaging on this particular issue is so bound up in emotional issues and fear and terror and 9/11 and so many other visual and heart-rending issues from the twin towers to our soldiers on the battlefield and elsewhere. And the Bush Adminstration has been playing up those images in order to tell the story it wants the public to know for the last five years. It is a very difficult thing to begin a dialogue about this from the back end of that.
Pach is absolutely right that George Soros has done the heavy lifting in getting the conversation the least bit started with this book. But we have to find a way to keep the conversation going — for all of our sakes — from this point forward. And we need to all put our brains on finding the way to more effectively discuss the issues involved without the conversation devolving into a finger-pointing, invective filled “you are unpatriotic” hate fest as it generally does with the right wing pundits who have been propping up George Bush’s failed foreign policies. We see what whirlwind we are reaping this week, and it doesn’t seem to get much better from here without a substantial re-thinking of our direction and our long-term path. And that will require a repudiation of what has come before this…
Oh tea-leaf-reader, you know nothing about me and even if what you said were true, it would be irrelevant (that’s why that type of “to-the-person” argument was not recommended by Aristotle). The Republicans have a brilliant PR operation that is allied with Evangelical and the larger corporate PR system. The left/liberals have the ideological equivalents of smudgy mimeographs. Soros full page ad purchases during the last election may have made him feel better, but had zero chance of attracting a single vote. When Robert Parry has to beg for funding, when there is not a single liberal PR firm, no TV to match the range from 700 club to PBS NewsHour, no think tank, no newspaper to match the Washington Times, no media smarts at all, something is terribly wrong.
parachutec at 18:
any time…Ii was born in Bulgaria and escaped with my parents from the communists. Although I’ve lived more years in the USA than in my native country, I care deeply about true democracy. This is why I have tremendous respect for Soros. Very few rich people actually have accomplished what he has done. And he’s very self-critical…
Now if only the Republicans can succumb to a little bit of self-criticism, we wouldn’t be where we are today.
I see that “what’s his names” comment was deleted, You can delete mine as well as I was only taking a shot at him and now my comment makes no sense.
And we need to all put our brains on finding the way to more effectively discuss the issues involved without the conversation devolving into a finger-pointing, invective filled “you are unpatriotic” hate fest as it generally does with the right wing pundits who have been propping up George Bush’s failed foreign policies.
Christy, I don’t see any way to do that. I can’t think of anything we can say, no matter how reasonable and self-evident, that would not be met with the usual accusations of rabid angry unpatriotism. It’s their favorite M.O., regardless of what *we* say.
Let me rephrase: The Right is not accusing us of treason because we’re not framing our ideas properly. They’re accusing us of treason because that’s what they do.
Soros says that free markets and multinationals have left the public good behind. Not coldly, intentionally; it’s just not what they are for. This is where government fits in. People make a mistake thinking that Big Business, which seems so ginormous and overpowering to us, has supplanted government and will look out for the public weal. It is still up to us to look after our democracy.
This admins bent for secrecy precludes public discussion abut the issues we really need to discuss, as a society. Our society’s tendency to nincompoopery, its anti-intellectual bent, is also a hindrance. Infotainment doesn’t want us to feel bad. We might stop buying.
I used to bristle at my Mom’s constant, mocking refrain “If it feels, good, do it.” about my generation. At the time, I thought she meant my tendency to prefer reading to cleaning my room or some other teen behavior; she never really explained what she meant.
WE just may need to sacrifice a lot in the very near future.
Eli @ 18, I’m not sure you’re actually accurate. I sympathize with the frustration.
Think about Soros’ views of the importance of cognition (ie, ‘how we think what we think’). If you view this through that lens, then the more important questions revolve around how the nervous system is affected by constant, repeated threats, belligerance, hostility.
It’s as if we’ve created some sort of abusive culture and that’s very, very, very dangerous. How do we get out of the ‘mutual hostility’ where politics is driven by sound bites and images of explosions, on to a more engaging, important converstion…
One question of that conversation might be, “what happens to people (physiologically) over time as they feel more and more neglected, abused, damaged?”
CHS speaks to that often when she references former victims… part of her work in prosecuting was (in some sense, I assume) to help heal by some kind of rendering justice.
So how does having some sense of ‘balance restored’ or justice affect people… physiologically?
Okay… I apologize! I’m sounding way, way, waaayyyyy too ‘research oriented’ or abstract here.
But in the end, we’re a bunch of neurons (made of molecules) and we generate hormones, and those affect us. Rather than putting Paxil in the drinking water, how do we CREATE, MODEL, and REINFORCE BEHAVIORS that teach people how to engage in political activities thoughtfully…?
(Age old human issue, BTW… just very, very out of hand, and even more critical, today)
Hey all, very important book. I don’t mean to sidetrack Pach’s discussion, but I think the starting point for conversation should perhaps be: what is the “war on terror” a metaphor for?
Obviously, at one level, it’s a metaphor for war on a tactic. Ted Sorensen, JFK’s speechwriter, recently analogized it to “war on blitzkrieg.” Even at this simplest level, that metaphor has troubling definitional ambiguities. I’ve seen “terrorism” defined as everything from organized violence against civilians to achieve tangible political objectives, to violence intended to incite a disproportionate response from a state power. Those responses are in at least one sense opposites: violence as a negotiating tactic v. violence as a destabilizing tactic.
Then there’s the way that Al Qaeda uses terrorism; is it unique? And of course, the way that the administration and the media use “terrorism” to refer to asymetrical attacks against military targets in Iraq.
At a deeper level, the “war on terrorism” is, of course, a metaphor for much more. In some sense, it’s been used to refer to the Bush Doctrine. It’s also been used as a metaphor for the “global struggle against violent etxremism,” the rather brief administration reframe of the issue. And it’s been used by those on the right as a metaphor for a war against Islam.
The indeterminacy of the metaphor is, in fact, a huge part of why it’s such a strategic nonstarter. It’s become a simple political tool, useful for domestic political purposes and to some extent in diplomacy. Anything can be inserted into its empty vessel: from invading Iraq, to supporting oppressive regimes in South America, to enacting harsh controls on immigration here at home.
Maybe I should rephrase my opening question. Is it even fair to think of the GWOT as a metaphor?
Eli at 25 — Yes, but that invective is losing its effectiveness with the general public. (Witness the Iowa newspaper whose conservative readership asked them to pull Ann Coulter’s syndicated column because her viewpoint no longer resonated with them, and they were shamed by it.) If the message is crafted so that it resonates with the majority of Americans, the invective on the other side rings hollow — and we find ourselves now at a point where there is an opportunity to serve as a check on the extreme ideology that has been at the forefront of American politics the last five years. Anything I can do to help tip that balance, I want to do as effectively as I can — and that goes for all of us.
FWIW, George Soros does contribute to progressive political candidates — even in Indianapolis !
Eli says: “They’re accusing us of treason because that’s what they do”.
Absolutely true! It’s the only weapon they have. As everyone can see reality doesn’t play to a script written by marketing consultants.
I don’t have as big a problem with the actual phrase “war on terror” as some other people do. I think it’s simply an imprecise, but catchy way of saying “war on terrorists”. The problem is that that’s not the war they’re engaged in, which is more of a war to *create* terrorists.
tea-leaf writes Also, FYI, totally intriguing that citizen k misses (as do most conservatives) the fundamental fact that biz only addressses its customers, shareholders, vendors. Politics is actually much more complex. It has to deal with **everyone** — much more complicated proposition.
I’m sorry but that’s just not correct. If you watch TV you will see very smart messaging by companies like ADM which have no consumer business at all and perhaps you missed the brilliant insurance company harry-and-david campaign that sunk health reform. The Republican party itself has a brilliant marketing operation that was sending out sharply crafted messages to identified market segments while Soros was writing a huge dense essay that was about as effective as a Pacifica radio show. Marketing works. My neighbors who all believe that Republicanism is associated with small government, tough guys, and family, are not stupid, but they are not going to have their belief dented by philosopy lectures.
What irritates me about Soros is that he is manifestly a smart guy but if he was determined to stop George Bush, he should have actually made an effort.
Citizen, Just because you tout a propaganda machine that would be the envy of 1938 Germany is no reason to think you are on the correct side. Mumble “rosebud” a couple of times and fade into history.
(Hit submit instead of preview. Premature commentaculation)
Soros is right about our feel good nation. He means the military-infotainment-complex, I think. No rigor to our thinking, no rigor in our lives. Nothing that might break our self-satisfied stupor. TV and movies and the reality shows leave us no time for our own lives.
So, how to disseminate Soros’ idea about the WOT more directly to the writers, producers, directors?
Christy, I hope you’re right. If we (or the Democrats) can, in fact, make the American people really *see* what the Republicans are doing, and by extension just how stupid and cowardly and hateful they are assuming the American people to be, there will be a backlash repudiation of epic proportions.
The question is, how to do it? Is it enough just to say, “This is what they do. This is what they think of you. We know you’re better than that.”?
Look, folks, let’s stick to ideas. Citizen K expressed a point of view, in terms not very conducive to discussion, but a point of view.
Let’s stay focused on the topic, not each other.
And everyone, conduct the discussion with respect, please, or the deleting machine will crop up in earnest.
citizen k at 21 - astute remarks. I think that Soros would say that he ‘conjectured’ that at least putting an ad in the paper and tossing the issue to some sort of visibility would help. When it was ‘refuted’ by the fact that his action didn’t change thngs enough, he adapted.
Your point at 21 is a good one.
(BTW: One of Popper’s books is titled, “Conjectures & Refutations” although I don’t even know whether it is still in print.)
Don’t feed the troll.
Okay, You are so right. Forgive me for getting angry.
Also, I don’t think we can turn the phrase ‘war on terror’ around. I think what people need to understand is that this isn’t a conventional war played by the same rules as WWII.
For me the most important point is that this administration has showed complete INCOMPETENCE understanding terrorism and how to battle it.
Steve Clark: I point out that the liberals have been marginalized and allowed the right to dominate the government because there is no counter to their propaganda machine and all you can do is sneer.
Eli at 35 — ah, that is the puzzle on which I have been chewing for the last couple of weeks since finishing this book. There has to be a better way to craft the discussion and the message. But we have to all be pulling the oars in the same direction for that to work — and messaging with Democrats is like herding cats. (Heavens, just trying to do it with other bloggers is like herding cats…)
That’s why this book is such an important start to the conversation, to my mind anyway. Mr. Soros manages to construct a framework for the thought process and the other possibilities — and there has to be a way to get people to see that there ARE other possibilities…
citizen: we’ve addressed this matter of the tenor of this discussion. Let’s move on, please.
(sigh) Whatever…..
While I agree with George Soros’ premise and have tremendous respect for his work, I am disheartened about the short term chances for success, and horrified by what may play out in the meantime.
I think it was George Lakoff who wrote that when a commonly accepted frame conflicts with the truth, the truth will be rejected.
With the ideological madmen controlling the asylum, the ascendancy of the seductive simplistic lie over the complex truth is even harder to overcome.
As for the “War on Terror” — the concept is so deeply embedded in the American Psyche, I’m not sure that either the Avarosis or Pachacutec approaches have much chance for success — but I’m open to persuasion.
the fault dear Pachacutec lies with you in not listing the multitudinous political activities of George Soros. Most of us here are somewhat acquainted with the man. Poor Citizen K seems to imagine that Soros closets himself on Wall Street and writes philosophical dissertations for his mode of social change. As I mentioned above, even out in here in Indianapolis, Soros has been involved in supporting progressive politics … perhaps we can have a Georgian or a Ukrainian chime in for Citizen Ks edification ?
Christy @43:
Is it enough for us bloggers to start saying… well, whatever we come up with? Or do we somehow need to get Democratic congresscritters and candidates saying it? Because that’s going to be *really* tricky - most of them don’t seem to like calling bullshit on the Republicans. I guess it’s impolite or something.
Progressives (and political movements in general) do not succeed by playing on the visiting field, utilizing what Lakoff describes as the other side’s “frames.” What’s more, Democrats, including John Kerry in 2004, have sought without success to deploy this redefinition strategy, to disappointing results.
That is our problem in a nutshell. When Kerry tried to float the idea that
he was pulverized by the republicans because they owned the framing on terrorism. I fear we can’t do a damn thing about it until we solve the problem of corporate control of the media furthering the interests of the corporatocracy rather than the interestes of America.
CHS @22 –
Thanks.
Eli @ 36 — The difficult part is the “seeing”. From my personal experience, trying to engage some people with different political opinions — particularly the “war on terror” — they just stop listening as soon as there is any logical dissonance on their side. Some of them are reachable/ought-to-be-reachable. “Had enough?” might work in the near term but we need a more positive way to discuss it.
Given the massive instability, uncertainty, and dread that defines the current international situation, I think we’ve got a pretty good opportunity to politically redefine the GWOT.
Things are screwed for two reasons: conservative policies have failed, and conservative strategy is wrong. They don’t care about getting things right, they only care about remaining true to their absurd theories.
The American people are waking up to the fact that conservative policies have failed. They see Iraq; they see the worsening situations in Iran, North Korea, even Russia. Hell, some of us even read about the fall of Somalia a couple of weeks back.
The challenge is to explain how those failures are derived from conservative thinking, and how we need to return to a foreign policy more consonant with the American foreign policy tradition. Redefining the GWOT is an important start.
Well, ck, I begin with this:
There is no war on terror.
Hilarity ensues.
Repeat and argue on a wide scale, and public perceptions change. It’s not rocket science. It’s a matter of consistency and repetition.
The truth only has no chance when truth-tellers surrender at the get-go.
CHS at 29: the invective on the other side rings hollow — and we find ourselves now at a point where there is an opportunity to serve as a check on the extreme ideology that has been at the forefront of American politics the last five years. Anything I can do to help tip that balance, I want to do as effectively as I can
Christy, to my fascination, I am seeing those same dynamics in my part of the US (large tracts of the West). People are fundamentally decent, and I think they were starting to wake up before Katrina… but it’s a different dynamic than I saw 2 years, or even one year ago.
But they’re sick of being treated dishonestly, IMHO. So for the Dem’s to simply say, “We’re not those bad Repub’s” is kind of … “doh.”
Soros seems to recognize very clearly that this is a CULTURAL issue… if it was as simple as one party, it would be more fixable.
He’s talking about increasing polarization, and increasing black-or-white thinking. That is what genuinely scares me much more than the WOT — the inability to look at problems and think about long, long term solutions.
That’s really, really tough for a Feel Good Society.
DaveM:
You make a very iportant point. Conseriavtive policies have manifestly failed, and people see it, even if the old line opinion crafters don’t.
That means people are waiting for an alternate perspective to take over: that’s the nature of this bubble we’re in.
op99, we have much more movement strength now than we did in 2004. We could do it, over time. DaveM’s point illustrates how people are ready. Will we answer the call, or wait in vain, once again, for someone else to lead when we ourselves must do so?
I thought in the aftermath of 9/11 that America should pursue the people who funded and planned the attacks as criminals-mass murderers.
Part of the problem is that we are using state war powers to go after common criminals, individuals if you will. I guess they call it asymetrical warfare. Well, we are playing right into these criminal’s hands by enhancing their asymetrical advantage.
Thoughts?
It’s not inconsistent of Soros not to put a great deal of thought into the marketing aspect of this message.
For one thing, he’s not a marketing guy, he’s a market guy.
For another, he’s said before that he thinks the right’s model of political conversation and operation is fatally flawed. It will eat itself alive with its viciousness. And it’s too far beneath the level of discourse we need to have. He doesn’t think the opposition, whether Dems, Greens or Naderites, should model their messages after the Cons.
I don’t pretend to have an answer. But I still want to be in the discussion.
Anyway, for what it’s worth, this is basically my stab at it what I would like to hear some brave Democrat say:
“The Republican lie about [pick an issue], it’s because they think you’re stupid. When they tell you that you have to give up your constitutional protections so they can protect you from terrorists, it’s because they think you’re cowards. When they tell you that gay marriage will destroy the institution of marriage, it’s because they think you’re bigots. *We* know that you’re Americans. Now go and show them.”
It needs a *lot* of tinkering by people more wordsmithy than me, but that’s my general idea.
(The “Americans” thing is key - we have to remind people of the nobility of what they believe America to be)
I always found that momentary ‘blip’ of sanity when even the Pentagon tried to re-define the GWOT as “the struggle against violent extremism” surfaced. It showed the thinkers were at work. Bush quickly slapped down that new phrase for his ideological partisan political advantage but it showed the folks actually waging the war were beginning to grasp some correct fundamentals.
pach –
There is no war on terror.
hmmm . . . that might be the best approach.
Hilarity ensues.
I don’t think so — more like dumbfounded silence, followed by spewing venom.
But you may be right — frontal assault on the basic premise might the only way to break down the resistance.
Eli @ 57 & 58 –
(sigh) If only one would.
I always found that momentary ‘blip’ of sanity when even the Pentagon tried to re-define the GWOT as “the struggle against violent extremism” surfaced.
And it would have had such a catchy acronym too.
So forgive my tone, but this is a sore topic for me. I have read many deep, intelligent, and perceptive essays on our current predicament, but Lee Atwater pointed out that elections are determined by the “20% who think wrestling is real” (from CG on DKos)and behind that crass assessment is a lot of truth. Out here in flyover America, even smart and well-educated people have been targeted by very clever advertising. You cannot break that emotional link by writing perceptive essays. What gets under my skin is that the right wing rich people have understood this very well and have created a working machine that meshes nicely with the concentrated corporate ownership of the media. The liberal rich people give to the philharmonics or to lobbying organizations - but don’t build partisan organization or media or marketing.
Soros’ efforts in East Europe seem to me to be mostly ineffective as well, because they do nothing to counter the appeals to raw nationalism, religion, and ethnic hatred that feed the right.
We live in a world dominated by very smart media. Ken Mehlman’s marketing operation for the last election involved research that allowed him to target, for example, gun based propaganda at people who subscribed to certain magazines and family based propaganda to people who subscribed to others. You can’t counteract that sort of thing by rational argument. That may be unpleasant to admit, but look at who is in power worldwide.
Eli –
Marketeers think of the acronym frist, the phrase second.
Pach @ 51, could I note a related topic… apologies in advance if this is too… ’sciencish’ or abstract.
A number of years back, an absolutely HORRENDOUS crime was committed in my city. Just horrific. Despicable. Tragic beyond expression. To good and decent people who did nothing more than open their door to a stranger.
The stranger was deranged. But in a bizarre way; he could speak, he could carry on a conversation (maybe CHS has seen the type)?
Later, he was asked why he murdered these people. He said, “They were evil. So I had to kill them.”
Now, I’ve never seen any sort of MRI on this person, but I have seen pictures of drawings that he made of himself. He was ALWAYS behind a wall; always, always behind a wall. And depending on who was on ‘the other side’ he would draw the wall bigger, with more barbed wire on the top.
Now… hang with me, please…
He had — in cognitive terms — almost no ability to see ‘grey’. Anyone who physically approached him was a threat. Anyone who asked his name was a threat. He literally had no sense of ambiguity.
And that’s one reason that Bush and the neocons alarm the hell out of me…. b/c, in addition to this guy’s madness, he was absolutely, totally convinced that he was right. The concept that he might be incorrect, or wrong, was totally foreigh to him.
And our media is kind of tailor-made for that type of thought process, BECAUSE we distill and simplify. so from a cognitive perspective, we’re not ‘teaching’ ambiguity.’ We’re not teaching that life is full of uncertainty.
And… as life is more insecure, all people lose tolerance for ambiguity and gravitate toward anything that offers ‘certainty’. And simplisitic politics are like gas on that fire.
Sorry, sorry for the long post, but I’m dumbfounded by this book and Soros’s insights… 8-0
The Right is not accusing us of treason because we’re not framing our ideas properly. They’re accusing us of treason because that’s what they do.
Alas, Eli, you’re correct about that. HOWEVER, “the Right” is losing credibility by the minute. What we’re watching so closely in CT is a microcosm and prediction of this November across the country. I do believe that most Americans are paying more attention than they did pre-2004, just because things are sliding downhill in such acceleration that it’s scaring them to attention. It’s also quite likely that the majority were in almost as much shock over Bush’s alleged re-election as the pollsters and we were (just quietly so).
Now, whether the DC Dems will be jarred loose of the status quo in time to get a grip on ‘08 is the question. I think they will, barely — but whether they do or not, the Right is spent, revealed in its crass stupidity, and a goner. They’re strangling on their own poison this very afternoon.
Somewhere in this country (in your room and mine, Eli, and in George Soros’s and yours and yours and yours, FDLers) are sitting the powerhouses that are re/energizing the US of A. We are coming to our own rescue, because nobody else will. ‘Tain’t treason, ’tis sanity. At last.
Eli @ 47 — Here are links to some of the critiques of the GWOT idea from early June. It can’t be a blogger lead effort, but there are encouraging signs from other media. Books like Danial Benjamin’s The Next Attack: The Failure of the War on Terror and a Strategy for Getting It Right are pushing the idea to an elite audience. The Foreign Policy Magazine/CAP terrorism index suggests that a consensus is forming there.
Intellectuals aren’t an ideal constituency to have on our side, but their influence is gradual and parvasive; their consensus should seep into the public conversation over time.
Pach at 53 said
we have much more movement strength now than we did in 2004. We could do it, over time. DaveM’s point illustrates how people are ready. Will we answer the call, or wait in vain, once again, for someone else to lead when we ourselves must do so?
I’m not saying it can’t be done, period, but that the dynamic of how people get their information and who controls the framing needs to change first. If I didn’t think it was possible, I wouldn’t be here; I would leave the country or shoot myself. However, I don’t delude myself that it will be quick or easy, and I don’t think you do either.
Marketeers think of the acronym frist, the phrase second.
The strange thing is, I remember seeing the phrase, but never the acronym. Did I just miss it?
And look at the state the world is in
I like George Soros, I wish we had a few more like him.
citizen k @ 62 unwittingly brings up a profoundly important point. Atwater was Bush I’s guy who helped send American politics down the sewer.
Atwater later died of brain cancer. But not just any brain cancer — brain cancer in the RIGHT FRONTAL LOBE. That’s where the guy who committed the horrendous crime also had a ‘lesion’ (ie., brain damage) and that’s the region of the brain that is often associated with aggression, impulsiveness, and (increasing hunches are suspecting) amoral behavior.
Very, very sobering if you think about it in those terms.. physiologically, socially, Atwater was literally playing out disease of the worst sort. And look at the social implications.
I’d sure like to see MRI’s of Cheney, Bush, Rove, Libby…. and Fitz. And no, I’m not a neuologist. Just know stuff about brain anatomy, which is a very, very hot topic these days.
Soros’ efforts in East Europe seem to me to be mostly ineffective as well, because they do nothing to counter the appeals to raw nationalism, religion, and ethnic hatred that feed the right.
Compared to what?
While George Soros may not have a magic wand, he did more to bring down Communism than Ronald Reagan.
Reagan spent how many trillions on military hardware? George Soros spent millions on photocopy machines, that allowed the people of Eastern Europe to organize, and bring down the rotten totalitarian edifice from within.
It’s been said that when Tito died, ethnic factionalism and civil war started up in the Balkans as if two weeks had passed since the end of WWII.
Everywhere that totalitarian regimes have held diverse nationalities together with an iron fist, sectarian and communal conflict erupts when the controlling force is removed. Which is what is happening in Iraq, and is why Democracy Boy’s excellent adventure was doomed to fail.
To condemn George Soros because the forces of history do not bend to his will is the height of arrogance. Would that any well intended citizen should be so powerful.
Mort Halperin’s oped in ,a href=”http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-op-halperin16jul16,0,999290.story?coll=la-opinion-rightrail”>today’s LAT touches on some of the damage the GWOT is doing to domestic politics. Nixon used national security rhetoric to cover up his disdain for democracy and the constitution; Bush uses it to justify his.
‘Terror’, it seems to me has something to do with hegemony, religious intolerance, discrimination, security within one’s borders, freedom from unqualified attack and occupation, freedom from “manifest-destiny”, freedom from plunder, and a lack of the means and or will, to institute an equitable distribution of the goodies. And perhaps most of all, terror arises from todays seeming propensity to reject the concepts of compromise, fairness, justice and the failure to incorporate a system of ethics and a loss of the ability to empathize and have compassion. How do we move beyond beyond terror? We talk, we act, and we keep our promises to each other. Naive perhaps, but that’s what I think.
Steve Clark: Your point of view is quite common, but have a hard time understanding it. People are not purely or even mostly rational. The Ukranians who flock to hear from right wing Orthodox churches how the Jews are responsible for their poverty or the Mississippi suburbanites who think Massachussetts liberals want to destroy their families or the hunters in Pennsylvania who are the margin of victory for Senator LooneyTunes because they think they are defending their gun rights are not acting in their own rational self-interest. And, if we are honest, the rest of us don’t know how much of our instinctive reactions are based on irrational emotional reflexes we haven’t thought to analyze. Is there anything controversial in all that?
So my reasoning is that given the power of marketing and irrational emotional thinking, and the terrible effects when bad people exploit this, it is morally incumbent on good people to fight back. That doesn’t mean we have to tell people to kill anyone who looks different, but it does mean that we should not disdain the use of persuasive methods. If Soros had put the same money he put into his newspaper advert into a direct mail campaign to convince evangelicals that Bush was lying about his religious beliefs, it might have been enough to turn the election and, I hope, would have saved many lives.
I’m not a neurologist either, but I have memorized television, and that idea, that lesions cause violent anti-social behavior (is there any violent behavior that isn’t anti-social?) is an episode of Law & Order: Criminal Intent.
EPU at 75 — memorizing television. Interesting hobby…
EPU at 75 — memorizing television. Interesting hobby…
Could be worse. I used to know pi out to 300 decimal places…
Eli –
S.A.V.E. — crummy acronym, btw; it’s no wonder Rove rejected it.
readerOfTeaLeaves –
Lee Atwater had two relatives that died of the same brain tumor, at the same age. But your point is very interesting — how much did the early stages of this disease influence his turn towards the ugliest side of politics?
The “War on Terror” having failed, Newt Gingrich has now helpfully declared that we’re really fighting World War III.
J.G. Ballard should find this most amusing.
Oops about the typo above in 73.
-ck- @ 72: Soros is still fighting the good fight in Russia. Ironically, he’s agreeing with Dick Cheney:
GWOT– it is a stoopid string of words. I can’t even deign to write it out properly, because it is patently ridiculous. How do you define terror?
A bomb or missile from a F-16? A landmine that destroys your child or your own leg and reproductive organs? A daisycutter? Willie Pete? Napalm? A suicide bomber? An IED? An ideology? Hey, try this on– we are the only country to eradicate people, dogs, cats, and more with nucular weapons!
Whatever happened to human imagination and the ability to face your enemy eye to eye and resolve your differences? Whatever happened to shame and the idea that if your actions are wrong, you apologize or in the most honorable and egregious situation, you commit seppuku to admit your dishonor. Whatever happened to caring for one another? Don’t we have enough stuff yet?
9/11 hurt. It hurt badly. I lost some not-so-close friends. Is that the justification we are going to use forever to justify our own bloodlust? I pray not. I cry every time I think of the Afghans, Iraqis, Israelis, Lebanese, Palestinians, Africans, Katrina survivors etc. living 9/11 everyday. We cannot smell the blood and the fire, but the fear and xenophobia is palpable. Reject that foul stench and let’s save our honor. The leaders of many countries must be stopped by the people; we here, in America, have the power to do just that.
George Soros is a hero of mine. He speaks and writes the truth and is brimming over with humility and humanity.
Eli - Only three hundred…SLACKER.
CHS - I have a special TIVO with a hypersonic fast forward feature, so the time commitment really isn’t that great.
So… Pach, I’d make the link from what is known and understood about cognition to the fact that our culture, and the current M$M, are sort of tailor-made for message that LACK AMBIGUITY.
Which is to be expected when people are very afraid. But which only make the problem worse.
I don’t care who owns the media… in cognitive terms, I care that they can get away with cutting away after 20 seconds. I care that they’ve made “time” so expensive that a thoughtful conversation can’t be aired.
Perhaps podcasting, which allows for more time, thought, and analysis will help. I’m starting to mix ‘em in with my music these days, and it is cognitively a very different experience from the smackdowns on tv.
Smackdowns on tv play straight into an inability to view things from more than one angle, which is a critical first step toward getting to any sort of Open Society.
People who are scared are never, ever going to be able to maintain an Open Society. That requires the ability to grapple with at least a moderate amount of ambiguity.
I’m not saying, ‘be squishy.’ I’m saying the WOT is tailor made for people who can’t tolerate ambiguity. So exposing it is going to require a lot of skill and compassion.
Not to use Mr. Rogers for political purposes, but I find it useful to think… “How would Fred Rogers approach this problem?”
To give a weird example, I used to hate sirens. Scared me to death. But one day, my kids were watching Mr Rogers and he very calmly talked about ambulances and fire engines and about how the sirens mean that “the helpers are coming”.
To make this very simplistic, the key communication objective is probably related to — in adult terms — saying, “okay, there are very bad people. But we’re all grown ups here, and we can deal wtih them. Here’s how we’re going to do it, but it won’t happen in just one month. And we will only ever ask our military to do things that fall specifically in the realm of what they are trained to do.”
Am I making any sense at all here…?
EPU, I didn’t want people to think I was strange.